题目：A Malaria Transmission Model with Temperature-Dependent Incubation Period
时间：6月21日（星期三），上午 10:30-11:30
报告人：赵晓强 教授（Memorial University of Newfoundland，Canada）
地点：致远楼102室
赵晓强教授于1983 年和1986 年分别在西北大学数学系获学士和硕士学位；此后师从我国运动稳定性理论先驱秦元勋先生，在中国科学院攻读博士学位，并于1990 年1 月获博士学位。1990 年至1998 年在中科院应用数学研究所先后任助理研究员、副研究员、研究员。1997 年至2005 年先后任美国Arizona 州立大学访问教授、加拿大纽芬兰纪念大学助理教授、副教授;从2005 年9 月至今任加拿大纽芬兰纪念大学教授。赵晓强教授是国际动力系统及应用研究领域中最活跃的学者之一。他关于单调动力系统、无穷维动力系统渐近性理论及其应用方面的很多工作已经成为了这一领域研究的经典文献。迄今为止，赵晓强教授在Communications on Pure and Applied Mathematics, J. European Math. Soc., J. Reine Angew. Math., SIAM J. Math. Anal., SIAM J. Appl. Math.,J. Functional Analysis, J. Differential Equations, Nonlinearity, J. Dynamics and Differential Equations, J. Math. Biology, Bulletin of Math. Biology 等国际知名期刊上发表学术论文130 多篇，其专著“Dynamical Systems in Population Biology”于2003年在Springer-Verlag 出版社出版。赵晓强教授现在是两个国际数学期刊的编委会成员和国际期刊Canadian Mathematical Bulletin 的主编。
摘要：Malaria is an infectious disease caused by Plasmodium parasites and is transmitted among humans by female Anopheles mosquitoes. Climate factors have significant impact on both mosquito life cycle and parasite development. To consider the temperature sensitivity of the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) of malaria parasites, we formulate a delay differential equations model with a periodic time delay. We derive the basic reproduction ratio R0 and establish a threshold type result on the global dynamics in terms of R0. More precisely, we show that the unique disease-free periodic solution is globally asymptotically stable if R0<1, and the model system admits a unique positive periodic solution which is globally asymptotically stable if R0>1. Numerically, we parameterize the model with data from Maputo Province, Mozambique and simulate the long term behavior of solutions. The simulation result is consistent with the obtained analytic result. In addition, we find that using the time-averaged EIP may underestimate the basic reproduction ratio. This talk is based a joint work with Xiunan Wang.
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